Charles Gaba's blog

Originally posted 08/13/2026

Thanks to New Mexico backfilling 100% of ALL lost federal tax credits for EVERY ACA exchange enrollee in the state who was eligible for subsidies last year, their average monthly enrollment total is actually higher than it was in 2025 in spite of Congressional Republicans allowing the enhanced federal subsidies to expire at the end of 2025. Initial signups during Open Enrollment were actually up a whopping 18% vs. OEP 2025.

Even so, effectuated enrollment has still gradually declined over the course of the year so far...from 15% higher year over year in January to just 0.5% higher as of July...and this month it actually slipped slightly below the August 2025 tally (New Mexico is one of a handful of states which provide timely, monthly effectuated enrollment data reports).

Originally posted 06/05/2026

Via the Connecticut Insurance Dept:

CONNECTICUT INSURANCE DEPARTMENT RELEASES HEALTH INSURANCE RATE REQUEST FILINGS FOR 2027

The Connecticut Insurance Department (CID) has received rate filings from four health insurers for plans to be offered in the individual and small group markets, both on and off the state-sponsored exchange, Access Health CT . As part of CID’s statutory responsibilities, the CID will conduct a thorough and careful review of each filing to ensure compliance with Connecticut insurance laws and regulations.

The CID’s review process will examine each submission in detail, requiring insurers to provide justifications and supporting evidence for their requested rates. All filings are available on the CID’s website .

Originally posted 6/19/26

The first thing that's important to understand about the Indiana insurance market is that there are two carriers leaving the individual (ACA) market, and one possibly (?) leaving the small group market next year.

I had previously written about Cigna Health & Life Insurance pulling completely out of the ACA market across all states in 2027. In Indiana, Cigna only had around 8,600 ACA enrollees last year; this year, according to this article, it's down to fewer than 7,000.

CareSource is also pulling out of Indiana along with at least some other states as well. Again, according to this story, they have nearly 60,000 currently effectuated Hoosiers enrolled in their individual market policies.

Originally posted 06/11/2026

Via the Massachusetts Division of Insurance:

2027 Health Insurance Rates

In accordance with the provisions of 211 CMR 66.08(3)(e), and in order to ensure that insurance rates are fair to consumers, the Division of Insurance reviews and seeks public comment on the rates requested by health insurance carriers.

The following tables depict the proposed overall weighted average premium increase and the key assumptions behind premium development for the merged (individual and small employer) market filed by insurance carriers as part of the Massachusetts Division of Insurance rate review process (for rates effective in 2027). This information is subject to change as the rate review process continues.

The Health Care Access Bureau within the Massachusetts Division of Insurance is currently reviewing these assumptions. This review process will culminate in a final decision in August 2026.

Merged Market Summary for Proposed Rates Effective for 2027

Yesterday I wrote about the standard monthly Medicaid/CHIP enrollment report published by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). I noted that as of April 2026, total combined Medicaid & CHIP enrollment had fallen by another 398,000 people, to around 73.9 million Americans.

I also noted that this figure is nearly 5.1 million lower than it was as of January 2025...the same month that Donald Trump returned to the White House and Republicans took over all three branches of the federal government.

However, this, combined with my obsession over the lack of any updates to the official "monthly" ACA exchange effectuated enrollment report since it was first published back in July, inspired me to take a closer look at just how many people have lost healthcare coverage total since the Trump 2.0 regime took power.

The Trump Regime has published an update to the official Medicaid/CHIP enrollment data:

April 2026 Key Findings

Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment

  • In April 2026, 73.9 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP.
  • 66.7 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid, and 7.1 million individuals were enrolled in CHIP.
  • 38.5 million adults were enrolled in Medicaid, and there were 35.4 million Medicaid child and CHIP enrollees.

Total Medicaid/CHIP enrollment in April 2026 dropped about 0.5% from March 2026, or another ~398,000 people.

via Wikipedia:

Medicare Advantage (technically "Medicare Part C" & originally called "Medicare+Choice") is a type of health plan in the United States offered by private companies as part of the original Social Security Act of 1965 that created Medicare. It permits a private insurance option that wraps around traditional Medicare. Medicare Advantage plans attempt to fill some coverage gaps and offer alternative coverage options.

Under Part C, Medicare pays a plan operator a fixed payment for each enrollee. The operator then pays for their medical expenses. Traditional Medicare directly compensates providers on a fee-for-service basis. Plans are offered by integrated health delivery systems, labor unions, non profit charities, and health insurance companies, which may limit enrollment to specific groups of people (such as union members).

I've finally completed my state-by-state individual & small group health insurance market analyses of the preliminary 2027 rate filings for all 50 states (+DC), so it't time to take a moment to check in and see where things stand overall.

There's some important caveats, of course:

Originally posted 6/05/26

The past couple of weeks have been pretty brutal for the Oregon health insurance market.

On May 21st, Providence Health Plan announced that they were shutting down pretty much their entire insurance division across Oregon (which also impacts some people in Washington and California):

Providence Health & Services plans to exit most of its Oregon health insurance business next year, citing rising costs, tougher regulation and intensifying competition from national insurers — a move that will force hundreds of thousands of Oregonians to find new coverage.

...Providence Health Plan, based in Portland, is Oregon’s third-largest health insurer, covering more than 421,000 Oregonians. It also covers over 13,000 members in Washington and 4,800 in California.

Originally posted 5/28/26

Every year around this time I start my annual individual & small group market rate filing analysis project. This involves spending months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing for the upcoming year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to change.

Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need.

The actual data I need to compile my estimates are actually fairly simple, however. I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:

Pages

Advertisement